What investors are thinking

of investors think we are moving toward a period of higher volatility.

of investors believe the investment environment is more challenging than 5 years ago.

of investors are unsure if now is a good time to invest.

What we think

The US-China trade conflict has been among the primary drivers of market volatility over the course of the past year. Although there have been signs of reconciliation between China and the US in 4Q19, investors may start to worry that a re-elected President Trump, no longer facing a future election, could become more adversarial with China. He has already warned that a deal negotiated in his second term would be “far worse.” Meanwhile, his political rivals’ trade rhetoric suggests that a Democratic president would be unlikely to adopt a more conciliatory approach.